Guest Spot: The Restoration Economy

guest-spot-the-restoration-economy
  • Author : David Macfarlane
  • Date : 11 Mar 2021

In this Guest Spot we hear from David Macfarlane, Director, Discretionary Wealth Management at HSBC Global Asset Management, on what is meant by The Restoration Economy and why it means costs are more important than ever for investors in today’s environment.

“While 2020 was one of the most challenging twelve months we may ever face – as investors and as human beings – it is wonderful to be ending the year on a ray of hope. Encouraging results from a number of vaccine trials mean that 2021 could well be defined by markets – and our lives – slowly returning to normal. At HSBC Global Asset Management, we are calling this phase ‘the restoration economy’ – and it dominates our investment outlook for next year.”

Joanna Munro – Global CIO

 

What do we mean by ‘the restoration economy’?

It is where global growth moderates after the extraordinary rebound in activity we’ve experienced over the past six months. It also refers to our forecasts for returns. Because of the unprecedented speed of the rally in most asset classes since March, expected returns are still attractive but are now lower across the board as we’re coming off a higher base.

To help understand our thinking, we will cover in this article a summary of our macro outlook, house view, key risks and thoughts on the policy outlook. More details on our 2021 Investment Outlook is available here.

 

Macro Outlook

  • We are in the restoration phase of the economic cycle. Activity remains below pre-Covid levels, everywhere except China
  • The pace of recovery will depend on where we are in the world, on the delivery of the vaccine, and on continued policy support. In some laggard economies, there is scope for cyclical catch-up in 2021
  • Abnormally-high unemployment rates, stressed corporate balance sheets, and fragile confidence means that the global economy needs ongoing policy support
  • There is little risk of a sustained rise in inflation in the near-term

 

House View

  • After the fast rally in 2020, prospective risk-adjusted returns for a variety of asset classes have fallen
  • Nevertheless, in a year of restoration, allocating to equities still makes sense, but we will need to be dynamic in managing regional exposures
  • Furthermore, there are still attractive valuation opportunities in certain parts of global markets. Emerging Market (EM) fixed income should benefit from a weaker dollar. Many alternative asset classes (e.g. Private Equity) should also do well, in our view
  • It is getting harder to find affordable and consistent hedges – we advocate a range of “new diversifiers” to build portfolio resilience

 

Key Risks

 

Policy outlook

  • Recent events have reduced key policy uncertainties. The age of policy uncertainty has ended
  • Global central banks continue to rapidly expand balance sheets. Major central banks have now adopted lower-for-even longer interest rates
  • Compared to the West, monetary policy in China is set to become relatively hawkish. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will focus on liquidity and targeted measures. Across Asia, incremental stimulus will be limited
  • US-China tensions inevitably persist, but the Regional Comprehensive Economic Policy (RCEP) trade agreement sets a new tone and will have a meaningful economic impact

An important consequence of the crisis and fast rally in 2020 is that the capital market line – the structure of asset class expected returns and risks – has shifted down and flattened. As we have mentioned, there are still attractive investment opportunities but expected returns are lower for longer; this means it is even more important than ever to pay attention to the costs investors pay.

Low cost and actively managed multi-asset solutions provide a way to allow investors to access a strategy that can help navigate the changing environment and importantly, keep a higher proportion of any returns they get. At HSBC, we manage a range of low cost multi-asset strategies that are actively managed in both a fund and MPS structure. If you would like more information, please contact Natasha Crosby in our Business Development Team:

Natasha.crosby@hsbc.com 
020 3359 1197
07384 793759

Notes

Source: HSBC Global Asset Management, Global Investment Strategy, January 2021. The views expressed are those of HSBC Global Asset Management, they were held at the time of preparation, and are subject to change.

For Professional Clients only and should not be distributed to or relied upon by Retail Clients. 
The material contained herein is for information only and does not constitute legal, tax or investment advice or a recommendation to any reader of this material to buy or sell investments. You must not, therefore, rely on the content of this document when making any investment decisions.

This document is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe to any investment.

Any views expressed were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. While any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. Where overseas investments are held the rate of currency exchange may also cause the value of such investments to fluctuate. Investments in emerging markets are by their nature higher risk and potentially more volatile than those inherent in some established markets. Stock market investments should be viewed as a medium to long term investment and should be held for at least five years. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. Any performance information shown refers to the past and should not be seen as an indication of future returns.

To help improve our service and in the interests of security we may record and/or monitor your communication with us. HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited provides information to Institutions, Professional Advisers and their clients on the investment products and services of the HSBC Group.
Approved for issue in the UK by HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, who are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
HSBC Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of HSBC Group, which includes the investment activities provided through our local regulated entity, HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited.

www.assetmanagement.hsbc.com/uk 
Copyright © HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited 2021. All rights reserved. ED2614 EXP: 311221

The statements and opinions expressed in the Guest Spot are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Novia Financial plc or any of its employees. The company does not take any responsibility for the views of the author. Any links, web pages and documentation within the Guest Spot are provided by pages maintained by independent third parties and Novia accepts no responsibility for the availability, content or use of the information contained within them.

Related reading

Exploding retirement income myths

Is drawdown really the only way for your clients to take more income in the early years of retirement? Old world thinking in the business and commercial domain was all…

Read more >

Guest Spot: What the FCA’s DBAAT means for suitability of advice

On January 15, the FCA put their defined benefit advice assessment tool (DBAAT) out into the public domain. Up until this date, the weighty Excel spreadsheet had been used behind…

Read more >

News

The lang cat host HomeGames #42 with Bill Vasilieff

18 March 2021

From the lang cat: Our guest on HomeGames today was a legend of the platform sector. Bill Vasilieff was there for Selestia in the early days, and then set up…

Read more >

Insights

How efficient was your business at tax year end?

30 March 2021

Advisory firms work hard for their clients at Tax Year End, advising on how to make the most of their family tax allowances. With the dust settling, however, you might…

Read more >

In the Media

Ask yourself tough questions if selling your business – Keith Furniss

6 May 2021

But before you jump, you really need to ask yourself rigorously: ‘What exactly do I want to achieve?’ This will be a new experience to you and probably the biggest financial…

Read more >

Videos

Quarterly and Tax Year End Updates

15 March 2021

It’s been a fast first quarter and we’ve brought in quite a few improvements in a short space of time. To ensure you’re up to speed with these developments, we’ve…